As the end of this year approaches, it is time to be an analyst and anticipate the trends and disruptive products that we will likely see in 2019.
Like many others, I missed AI’s verticalization this year. I’m now leery about forecasting, because AI has been working in the background and developing undisclosed products that could be just a disruptive.
Let’s look at what I can see, and then we’ll finish with my last product of the week in 2024. The AI-driven SPAN panel is a powerful tool that helped me eliminate devices I wasn’t using but were still consuming a large amount of energy.
AI Revolution
I’m typing this at AMD’s AI launch in San Jose. Next year, while every chip maker is chasing after the AI genie now, we will see which companies are using AI effectively to advance themselves. AMD is just one of many companies using AI aggressively, but it’s not the only one. Microsoft is more aggressive.
AI technology is being used to create faster and more interesting products. It has also led to improvements in human-machine interactions that are based on the way you interact with technology.
This wave will not end until 2024.
AI is not just used to develop products anymore, it will also be used to progress itself. The result will be a rapid and unprecedented product advancement, and capabilities that would otherwise have to wait until 2030 to even be born.
The pace of change is unprecedented but it pales in comparison to what we will see in the next decade. The coming decade is not for those who dislike change.
Electric Cars
Electric cars will continue to face opposition until charging issues are resolved.
It will be very helpful to move towards the Tesla charging standard. Even so, it’s unlikely that existing charging stations or vehicles will be upgraded to the new standard before 2024. This may cause some buyers to switch back to ICE cars or to wait until the new chargers are available and the new cars have this socket.
Tesla’s CEO is responsible for the negative impact of this downturn. Even though Tesla could have avoided it, this may be the case.
Autonomous driving
First Level 3 working autonomous cars are expected to be available on the market. Most, if they are not all, will be electric. This feature will underperform due to the combination of the electric cars pullback and distrust for technology, coupled with a monthly subscription model.
This last scenario is unlikely and indicates that this new automotive tech will not perform well on the market. This trend will take several years before it is reversed, which is unfortunate because the new autonomous technology is expected to outperform the current vehicles on the roads and create these negative perceptions.
New Hardware and Head-Mounted Displays
The advancements in head-mounted display technology, including the Rokid Max AR Glasses The following are some examples of how to get started: Goovis G3 MaxIn 2023, a significant amount of progress was made.
This technology will allow smartphones to enter markets that were traditionally dominated solely by PCs.
In 2024 it is unlikely that we will see a significant PC replacement, but the foundations for such a change could be laid in 2025 or even 2026.
Deepfakes used in a wide range
It is only recently that people have discovered how to use AI to create avatars, and then to use these avatars instead of actors to create videos with a professional look.
Media outlets will increasingly use this technology, just as they do in South Korea and other places, to relieve the pressure on live TV talent. We’ll also start to see it used for longer content. But I think that this will be more the exception than the standard.
This behavior will be on the rise when the contract of the actors’ union expires within three years. We will see this behavior used illegally to discredit political opponents and to potentially hurt the reputations of the people who the bad actor is trying to harm.
The fight against illegal use of this technology is going to be a priority in 2024.
Working from Home
The trend of working from home will continue to decrease unless there is another pandemic, which may be possible given what’s happening in China.
The corporate sector, including the HR department, has not done enough to ensure that remote employees feel part of their company and aren’t disadvantaged because they work remotely. Remote management tools have not been improved and managers are not being retrained to manage these employees better.
I anticipate that some videoconferencing vendors who currently have less than 10% market share will leave the market. Zoom, currently the market leader, is more likely to be acquired by a player with a marginal market share. Microsoft, which has a market share of 25% and supports remote work should continue to be an example.
Digital Immortality
The first digital immortals will be available in 2024. They won’t be digital clones, but rather digital clones that are digital copies of real people.
This technology allows parents to create a clone that will last for a very long time. It can be used by relatives, friends, spouses, children and grandchildren to continue interacting with the original human after their death.
In 2024 the numbers will be low, and I anticipate that several issues will need to be resolved, namely cost, in order for these efforts to become mainstream. This will be more of a taste than a real technology wave. It will probably wait until the technology improves and training time becomes more reasonable.
Digital Assistants are getting a major upgrade
Digital assistants such as Alexa and Siri only offer voice-to text and text-to-speech interfaces. They will be replaced aggressively by generative AI next year. This tool set will have a major change in capabilities and intelligence.
In general, 2024 will see it more difficult to tell AIs apart from humans.
Malware
In 2024, malware will be a new class of products. It will become smarter and more aggressive in its self-propagation. This will dramatically increase the possibility that one of these highly advanced programs could jump containment, causing massive global damage.
In 2024, the threat of advanced malware could be the biggest for companies and individuals. This is especially true in countries already at war.
Wrapping Up
This list is just a sample of the future. The impact of AI will be huge and cut across staffing, human-machine interfaces in many, if not most, devices — and hostile applications.
Although 2023 was a disruptive year, the next decade will be even more so.
If you hate change, the decade ahead will be unpleasant. However, if change is your thing, then this could be an exciting time. You should love change.
SPAN AI Home Power Panel
One of the products that I installed in this year was the SPAN electrical panel.
(Image Credit: SPAN)
This AI-driven system allows users to determine what is consuming power in their homes and how that affects their electricity bill. In the case of using off-grid energy, it can limit the amount of time spent operating off-grid.
I have a Tesla battery in my home and a Solar Plant on my Roof. This SPAN Panel, which is largely self-programming, has determined what’s pulling the most electricity in my house.
This should help me prioritize what to keep powered and what to turn off. It knows which communication devices are critical (routers, for example). Food refrigeration is important to ensure that I do not accidentally disconnect from the outside world if need be, or cause my food spoilage if sheltering in a place.
The panel looks better than my older panel, and it has built-in lighting in case you need to see which breakers you’re reaching for if they have blown. I use a lot devices so I bought two panels.
Cost
Around $3,500 a piece, SPAN panels aren’t cheap.
Installing these panels costs about twice as much as the panel itself, because the electrician has to remove the old one and then wire it in. This makes them more suitable for new constructions or renovations that require a lot of wiring replacement.
SPAN is the app that monitors the Tesla batteries, solar system and panel.
A problem is that the app has not yet merged both panels. This results in a dashboard which is divided. A software update will soon allow us to have two panels in a single view, as if it were just one.
SPAN is the Product of the Week because it saves me money while making my house more resilient to power failures.
