What was it? Obviously, You can also find out more about us here. The year 2023 is no longer a distant memory.
We just experienced a pivot in our lives of technology, which is called the pivot towards AI.
Or did we?
ChatGPT, and other AI tools that generate large language models, will be a big hit in 2023. This has put CRM vendors on a race to the front of the pack. Some of us were also thrown into a frenzy about the future. Whoa, horsey, to that I say!
I do not doubt that AI will be a major force in the coming years, but I’m also skeptical about the possibility of a future in 2024. It’s simple: claiming territory and settling a territory are two different things.
Although it shows my age, I will still say it. The current situation reminds me of how the PC revolution began, the rise and fall of SaaS then cloud computing or even the early days of social media. Each capitalist path is similar, but differs.
Echoes from the Past
Mini-computers and mainframes were eventually replaced by PCs. It’s a capitalist approach. But PCs needed software, networking, and ultimately servers — and that took more than a decade.
SaaS, a new technology, was introduced with as many flavors early on as Ben and Jerry. One by one they all failed, with the exception of Salesforce. In 2005, I thought Salesforce was the only real competitor, but it would take another decade for the San Francisco-based company to convince the world of their capabilities, particularly in security.
SaaS, then called cloud computing was a new concept in the forest that dominated other models. Today, SaaS has replaced many other models for software delivery. Cloud computing and PCs are different in that the former is a durable product, while the latter is a service. I don’t recall a service being given such prominence.
Social has turned out to be a huge disappointment. Social’s potential was hailed and it had early successes, but we lost track of it as its sinister side grew. In the first decade of this century, most social companies were profitable and popular. The world’s “soapbox” where anyone could share their ideas and possibly catch on.
You will know exactly what has happened. Social media was corrupted by outside forces, and the largest players could not resist wanting more. Users’ lists were compromised and money was exchanged quite legally. Social media suddenly became the world’s most powerful drug, turning people who would otherwise be reasonable into zombies.
Uncharted Territory for AI
It is too early to predict the future of AI. Will it replace our jobs? Will it take our jobs? Will it simply take over? It’s too early to tell — though from what I have seen, the vendors have come a long way very fast by using AI’s generative power to make more AI. The biggest hurdle to AI adoption, like all new technologies, will be the user.
The AI infrastructure will probably look like the PCs of the 1990s. I don’t think it will be as viral as social. AI will assist in the rollout but there is much to do. However, the human element is also a major factor.
Hollywood actors resolutely fought back this summer and forced the entertainment industry into accepting the fact that AI is not a free lunch. I anticipate more clashes between capital and workers over AI deployment.
Donald Rumsfeld used to call them the black swans. What AI-related black swans can we expect? Will workers in the business sector push back? What about higher learning? Both educators and students will have something to add.
AI’s Journey: Beyond the Hype
I’m confident in saying that AI won’t be the breakout technology of 2024. There is too much work to be done, too many people that need to be convinced, and we will need at least one crash to show us the truth. Consider the dot.com crash.
AI will infuse our language with new ideas and suppositions by 2024. There will also be some success stories; AI could even see some IPOs. There is, as I stated at the outset, a difference between claiming and settling territory. At this stage in the rollout of AI, ordinary people like you and me can have a disproportionate impact on its evolution.
Social media was a disaster because we had a Pollyannaish fascination with it and believed that something cool and big would only be good. The stakes are higher now with AI, and we have been somewhat numbed by the last major model changes — all the more reason to remain watchful in the year ahead.
